An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a health care company in the United States and internationally.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $412.75
UnitedHealth Group holds its Markup at $412.75.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 34 days
Price
$412.75
Valuation
31.06 trailing · 18.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 79.9
Beta
0.63
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 19% discount to our $491.79 fair value, weak competitive moat, 0.40% revenue growth.
Read at
$412.75
31.06 P/E · 18.40 fwd
Our fair value
$491.79
19% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$490.00
+19% to current
Target low $313.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $529.00
▲ current $412.75 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$412.75
you are here
Conservative
$370.18
-10%
Analyst avg
$490.00
+19%
Our fair value
$491.79
+19%
Analyst high
$529.00
+28%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
0.40%
Profit margin
3.14%
Debt to equity
69.21
Analyst consensus
Buy · 26 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 25.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 17.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 15.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
UnitedHealth has hit a wall on growth
Picture a giant insurer that also runs clinics, data tools and pharmacies all under one roof. UnitedHealth tries to lock in customers across every step of care, yet revenue has flatlined and the moat looks thin against nimbler rivals.
We pass because zero top-line growth, a weak competitive edge and a 3 percent profit margin do not justify even the modest premium to current prices. The 19 times forward earnings and 14 percent return on equity read more like a mature utility than a compounder, and the ethical screen offers no offset.
Risks sit in reimbursement pressure, regulatory scrutiny on vertical integration and the chance that stagnant sales turn into outright declines if employers keep shifting to cheaper plans. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
UNH trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $395. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. Entered 2026-07-18 · Accumulation
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Accumulation$399.47+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $395. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-16Accumulation$399.47+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $395. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Accumulation$399.47+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$399.47Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
