Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-24
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price400.84 USD
Fair value491.79
Ethical score79.9/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-15Read Markdown412.75-2.9% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation399.47+0.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
UnitedHealth Group holds its Markdown at $400.84. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 34 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 34 days
Price at the screen
$400.84
Valuation
25.74 trailing · 17.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 79.9
Beta
0.62
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.32%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
17.52%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 17.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.31%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 23% discount to our $491.79 fair value, weak competitive moat, 0.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 22.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Healthcare Behemoth Faces Stagnation
Imagine the healthcare landscape as a sprawling city of patients, providers, and insurers, where UnitedHealth Group is the largest building with its towering presence dominating the skyline. Despite its size, the company's growth has stalled, with zero revenue growth, which is concerning for an industry that's typically robust. Why it stands out is its strong position in a perpetually growing market, yet the numbers indicate a standstill, a peculiar juxtaposition.
The market, with its consensus rating of buy and median target of $490, seems to see potential that the company's current metrics don't support. UnitedHealth Group's forward P/E of 17.2x and a meager profit margin of 3%, alongside a ROE of 14%, suggest that despite a pass on our ethical screen, the financial performance isn't compelling. The weak moat indicates vulnerability to competition, which, combined with stagnant growth, raises questions about future prospects.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UNH trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-15Markdown$400.84-2.9%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $395. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-08-15Markdown · changed$412.75+3.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $395. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Accumulation$399.47+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $395. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-16Accumulation$399.47+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $395. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Accumulation$399.47+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$399.47Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
