An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally.
VERDICT
The label
Accumulation
read at $83.89
TransMedics Group, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $83.89.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Accumulation label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-07
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 15 days
Price
$83.89
Valuation
21.73 trailing · 35.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.88
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$83.89
21.73 P/E · 35.34 fwd
Our fair value
$74.86
11% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$97.50
+16% to current
Target low $73.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $125.00
▲ current $83.89 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$83.89
you are here
Conservative
$65.70
-22%
Analyst avg
$97.50
+16%
Our fair value
$74.86
-11%
Analyst high
$125.00
+49%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
20.70%
Profit margin
22.69%
Debt to equity
167.50
Analyst consensus
Buy · 10 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 48.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 53.6% of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Keeping organs alive changes transplant odds
When a donor heart or lung has to cross continents, time is the real killer. TransMedics built a portable perfusion system that keeps organs functioning until they reach the table. Revenue is growing 21 percent, margins sit at 27 percent and return on equity reaches 45 percent, all while passing the ethical screen.
Yet the opportunity rating is none. At 26.7 times forward earnings the valuation leaves scant margin for slower uptake and the competitive moat is still unknown, so the setup does not clear our bar despite the gap to fair value.
Reimbursement shifts or slower hospital adoption could blunt the growth. The 22 percent discount to fair value offers some protection but not enough to offset the unknowns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in TMDX's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
TMDX trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 15.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $117. Entered 2026-08-14 · Accumulation
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 15.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $117.
2026-07-18Distribution$72.91+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $117.
2026-07-03Distribution$72.91+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$72.91Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$64.30
+16.3%
·
$1,163
+16.3%
2 months
$114.00
-34.4%
·
$656
-34.4%
3 months
$121.31
-38.4%
·
$616
-38.4%
6 months
$127.62
-41.4%
·
$586
-41.4%
1 year
$140.86
-46.9%
·
$531
-46.9%
2 years
$144.67
-48.3%
·
$517
-48.3%
3 years
$79.35
-5.8%
·
$942
-5.8%
5 years
$28.31
+164.1%
·
$2,641
+164.1%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever TMDX does next, these words stay.
TransMedics Group, Inc. · TMDX · Accumulation · $83.89
Recorded 2026-08-07 · before the outcome · scored mechanically