Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.07, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price16.60 USD
Fair value12.05
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-14Read Markdown17.08-2.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-08-14Read Distribution17.86-7.1% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 6% rise in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation16.92-1.9% to today First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
TFS Financial Corporation holds its Markdown at $16.60. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$16.60
Valuation
44.64 trailing · 41.21 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.73
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
TFS Financial does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when TFSL's ethical verdict changes
Today TFSL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 27.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Banks look steady until ethics and price collide
Picture the local branch where families park savings and chase small mortgages. TFS Financial posts steady 10% revenue growth and 28% profit margins, yet we pass without hesitation. The ethical screen blocks any bank outright, and the numbers give no reason to argue.
Valuation seals the case. Shares trade at 49 times forward earnings, a full 70% above our fair value estimate, while return on equity limps along at 5%. That combination leaves no margin of safety and matches the hold consensus from analysts.
Low capital returns already signal limited growth power, and any rate-cycle shift could squeeze earnings further. The current price simply offers nothing worth owning.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TFSL trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown$16.07+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$16.07+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$16.07+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$16.07+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$16.07+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$16.07+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$16.07-0.7%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$16.18-0.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-10-02Markdown$16.30-4.6%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-09-14Markdown · changed$17.08-4.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
