Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.20, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price18.10 USD
Fair value28.15
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-10Read Markdown24.43-25.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 25% slide in 10 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution32.60-44.5% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Papa John's International, Inc. holds its Markdown at $18.10. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 31 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 31 days
Price at the screen
$18.10
Valuation
24.73 trailing · 14.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.09
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
111.80%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 111.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.44%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Papa John's International,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 112% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when PZZA's ethical verdict changes
Today PZZA does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · Consumer boycott campaigns
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited in consumer boycott campaigns for franchise restaurant operations in Israel. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 55.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +49% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Pizza orders keep coming but sales keep shrinking
Think of a Friday night takeaway where the same pizza chain keeps the lights on across American suburbs and a few overseas cities. Papa John's still shifts plenty of pies, yet revenue has dropped 8% while the profit margin sits at just 1%. A forward multiple of 19 times on a cyclical restaurant business with no visible moat leaves little to get excited about, so the opportunity rating stays at none.
Analysts carry a buy consensus and a 34 dollar median target, just above the current 32.86 price, and our fair value edges to 36.31. Those figures change nothing for us because top-line pressure and wafer-thin margins point to a business that is treading water rather than building durable value.
Low profitability gives scant cushion if ingredient costs climb or diners cut back, while international exposure adds further swings despite the clean ethical pass. The setup looks ordinary at best.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PZZA trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Markdown$18.10-5.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $38. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$19.21+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-10-21Markdown$19.21-2.7%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-10-14Markdown$19.75-0.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-10-02Markdown$19.78-19.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 19.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $38. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-09-10Markdown · changed$24.43-25.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 25.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-08-09Distribution$32.86+0.8%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-07-18Distribution$32.60+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-07-03Distribution$32.60+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$32.60Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
