Screened 2026-08-13 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Papa John's International, Inc. holds its Markdown at $24.43. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-13
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$24.43
Valuation
30.54 trailing · 18.35 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.09
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
111.80%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 111.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.44%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · Consumer boycott campaigns
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited in consumer boycott campaigns for franchise restaurant operations in Israel. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-13 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-13 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Pizza orders keep coming but sales keep shrinking
Think of a Friday night takeaway where the same pizza chain keeps the lights on across American suburbs and a few overseas cities. Papa John's still shifts plenty of pies, yet revenue has dropped 8% while the profit margin sits at just 1%. A forward multiple of 19 times on a cyclical restaurant business with no visible moat leaves little to get excited about, so the opportunity rating stays at none.
Analysts carry a buy consensus and a 34 dollar median target, just above the current 32.86 price, and our fair value edges to 36.31. Those figures change nothing for us because top-line pressure and wafer-thin margins point to a business that is treading water rather than building durable value.
Low profitability gives scant cushion if ingredient costs climb or diners cut back, while international exposure adds further swings despite the clean ethical pass. The setup looks ordinary at best.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PZZA trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-10Markdown · changed$24.43-25.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 25.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-08-09Distribution$32.86+0.8%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-07-18Distribution$32.60+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-07-03Distribution$32.60+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$32.60Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
