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The Screen · Financials · Mortgage Finance
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.
PFSI · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $3.4B · 5,650 employees
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the mortgage banking and investment management activities in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
65.61 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-23 · not a live quote Last reviewed 12 days ago
Screened 2026-09-23 · the tape above runs as of 09:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 65.61 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 100.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price65.61 USD
Fair value100.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-09Read Markdown73.29-10.5% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution81.66-19.7% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. holds its Markdown at $65.61. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 61 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 61 days
Price at the screen
$65.61
Valuation
9.02 trailing · 6.10 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.43
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
PennyMac Financial Services, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 52.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +37% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mortgage Lender Hits Our Ethical Red Line
Picture a family in Phoenix locking in a new home loan only for the paperwork to feed a sector we have ruled out on principle. PennyMac sits squarely in financial services, which triggers an automatic fail on our ethical screen regardless of any valuation gap. That single filter keeps us out even though the shares trade at 6.5 times forward earnings against a stated fair value thirty-five percent higher.
The business shows a fifteen percent profit margin and twelve percent return on equity, yet revenue has already fallen seventeen percent. Mortgage origination volumes swing hard with interest rates and housing cycles, so the low multiple may simply reflect peak earnings rather than a bargain. Seven analysts still lean buy with a median target of one hundred and five dollars, but none of that moves the ethical block.
Risk sits in the cyclical trap where falling volumes and credit losses can erase apparent cheapness quickly, plus unknown competitive edge in a crowded field. We pass for the ethical reason alone. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PFSI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$65.61-10.5%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $116.
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$73.29-4.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $116.
2026-08-08Distribution$76.99-5.7%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $116.
2026-07-18Distribution$81.66+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $116.
2026-07-03Distribution$81.66+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$81.66Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
