Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price1.25 USD
Fair value2.50
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown1.25+0.0% to today
2026-08-16Read Distribution1.95-35.9% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown2.38-47.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
UWM Holdings Corporation holds its Markdown at $1.25. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$1.25
Valuation
N/A trailing · 3.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.82
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
UWM does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +60% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
Every time a US homeowner refinances or buys, the loan still has to move through layers of capital rules and servicing costs that few outsiders ever see. UWM Holdings sits in that wholesale channel, posting 24% revenue growth and a 41% ROE. Yet the business fails our ethical screen outright because it operates in prohibited financial services.
The headline numbers look tempting at a 4.2x forward P/E with a 2% profit margin and analyst targets near double the current price. Mortgage originators are classic cyclicals though, and a low multiple at this point in the rate cycle often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain. Currency swings and housing volumes can erase those returns quickly.
We pass for the ethical breach alone. The rest of the arithmetic does not change that call. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UWMC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$1.25-15.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 15.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-09-16Distribution$1.47-24.6%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 24.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 18.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-07-18Markdown$2.38+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-07-03Markdown$2.38+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$2.38Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
