Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 3.02, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price4.57 USD
Fair value9.14
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown6.07-24.7% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 13% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-08Read Accumulation6.99-34.6% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 21% rise in 5 weeks
2026-08-07Read Markup5.80-21.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after an 18% rise in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation4.92-7.1% to today First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Nuvation Bio Inc. holds its Markdown at $4.57. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 70 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 70 days
Price at the screen
$4.57
Valuation
N/A trailing · -323.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.62
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
9.64%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 9.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
61.38%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 61.4% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
30.29%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 30.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
34.07%
Below 5%
34.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Nuvation Bio's business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 61% of its assets, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when NUVB's ethical verdict changes
Today NUVB does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +163% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Early Cancer Drug Bet Faces Steep Clinical Odds
Picture a lab team racing to prove one molecule can shrink lung tumours where existing drugs fall short. Nuvation Bio sits at that exact stage with its lead ROS1 inhibitor. The market prices the shares at roughly half our fair value estimate yet we still pass because clinical stage biotech remains a binary outcome game that rarely rewards patience once trials extend or costs mount.
Revenue has leapt from a tiny base while margins sit at minus 102 percent and return on equity at minus 40 percent. Forward earnings stay deeply negative and no durable moat is visible. Analyst price targets cluster near twelve dollars but those figures rest on assumptions that have yet to clear phase three data or secure regulatory approval.
The honest risk is that most candidates like this one never reach the market or arrive years later than hoped, wiping out capital along the way. Currency, dilution and binary trial results add further pressure. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NUVB trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Markdown$4.57-5.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$4.85+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$4.85+3.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-10-18Markdown$4.68-22.9%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 22.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$6.07-13.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 20.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$5.80+17.9%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 17.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-18Accumulation$4.92+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-03Accumulation$4.92+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$4.92Entry 1
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
