2026-10-25
NextNav clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 02:02 UTC
The Screen · Technology
NextNav Inc.
NN · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $2.0B
Not yet scored11.91 USD
Price as of 27 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-10-27 · the tape above runs as of 02:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price11.91 USD at the 27 Oct 2026 close
- Our ratingAvoid, current read distribution
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.29)
- Last reviewed27 Oct 2026 (3 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 11.91 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 23.82, over the last year.
- Trend Distribution
- Insiders insiders sold, $33,702, latest filing 2026-09-24
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.29, read 2026-10-29
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price11.91 USD
Fair value23.82
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Distribution14.45-17.6% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Markdown14.45-17.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-06Read Markup15.18-21.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 9% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-07Read Distribution13.89-14.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 36% slide in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its distribution label.
NextNav Inc. holds its Distribution at $11.91. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 32 days.
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 32 days |
| Price at the screen | $11.91 |
| Valuation | N/A trailing · -20.89 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored |
| Beta | 1.16 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 9.87% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 9.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 5.20% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.2% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 0.00% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
NextNav clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-29. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
NextNav clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 10%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 100% discount to our $23.82 fair value.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +143% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsWhy it gives us pause
At -20.9x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. Our fair value sits at $23.82, below where it trades today.
| Forward P/E | -20.9x |
| EPS, trailing | -0.94 |
| EPS, forward | -0.57 |
| Revenue growth | -4.3%revenue is shrinking |
| Profit margin | 0.0%currently unprofitable |
| Return on equity | -77.9%not currently earning a positive return on equity |
| FCF yield | -4.56% |
| Debt to equity | 3.94heavy leverage: higher risk if revenue softens |
| Current ratio | 25.63comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 1.16moves a little more than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.16% |
| 52-week range | 8.98 - 24.42 |
| Market cap | $2.0B |
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeNN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25
Distribution $10.71
+0.0% Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-10-18
Distribution $10.71
-25.9% Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 25.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-10-11
Distribution · changed $14.45
+0.0% Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-10-02
Markdown · changed $14.45
-4.8% Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-09-06
Markup · changed $15.18
+9.3% Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-08-07
Distribution · changed $13.89
-35.7% Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 35.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-07-18
Accumulation $21.60
+0.0% Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-07-03
Accumulation $21.60
+0.0% Entry 2
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02
Accumulation $21.60
Entry 1
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Gray Timothy | CFO | S - Sale | 11,099 | $162,538 |
| 2026-09-24 | Insley Susan Brasse | COO | S - Sale | 2,370 | $33,702 |
| 2026-09-17 | Shams Sammaad | Chief Accounting Officer | S - Sale | 1,576 | $23,075 |
| 2026-09-03 | Sorond Mariam | CEO, Pres, Dir | S - Sale | 2,831 | $41,663 |
| 2026-03-26 | SHAMS SAMMAAD REHMAN | Officer | 3,945 | $77,085 | |
| 2026-03-24 | INSLEY SUSAN BRASSE | Chief Operating Officer | 2,370 | $44,015 | |
| 2026-03-20 | GRAY TIMOTHY A CPA | Chief Financial Officer | 1,405 | $25,445 | |
| 2026-03-20 | SHAMS SAMMAAD REHMAN | Officer | 1,767 | $32,000 | |
| 2026-03-20 | BLACK JAMES S | General Counsel | 9,429 | $169,428 | |
| 2026-03-20 | INSLEY SUSAN BRASSE | Chief Operating Officer | 3,599 | $65,178 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| 2026-09-25 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | sell | 1K–15K |
| 2026-09-25 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| 2026-09-25 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | sell | 1K–15K |
| 2026-09-23 | Kevin Hern | Republican | sell | 50K–100K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $20.22 | +7.2% | · | $1,072 | +7.2% |
| 2 months | $15.28 | +41.8% | · | $1,418 | +41.8% |
| 3 months | $16.94 | +27.9% | · | $1,279 | +27.9% |
| 6 months | $16.70 | +29.8% | · | $1,298 | +29.8% |
| 1 year | $12.23 | +77.1% | · | $1,771 | +77.1% |
| 2 years | $7.44 | +191.3% | · | $2,913 | +191.3% |
| 3 years | $2.73 | +693.8% | · | $7,938 | +693.8% |
| 5 years | $10.05 | +115.7% | · | $2,157 | +115.7% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever NN does next, these words stay.
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