Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-31
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price212.55 USD
Fair value187.21
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown212.55+0.0% to today
2026-08-24Read Distribution218.32-2.6% to today ✓
2026-07-16Read Markup213.97-0.7% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Honeywell holds its Accumulation at $212.55. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 145 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 145 days
Price at the screen
$212.55
Valuation
8.17 trailing · 21.39 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.90
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.27%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.91%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
27.29%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 27.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.99%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Honeywell's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 48% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · Don’t Buy Into Occupation, Palestinian BDS National Committee
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on Don’t Buy Into Occupation / Palestinian BDS National Committee — category: Corporate Complicity Report / Annex 2 Company List. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $187.21 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 4.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 11.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +25% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Honeywell trades rich while ethics flag red
Picture a steady industrial giant with fingers in aerospace and automation. Honeywell still prints decent returns on equity yet the shares sit well above any reasonable value. We pass because the price leaves no margin and the ethical screen already blocks the name.
Forward earnings sit on a 23 times multiple while revenue edges ahead just 2 percent a year. Profit margins hold at 11 percent and return on equity reaches 24 percent, yet our fair value lands 22 percent below the current quote. A moderate moat cannot justify paying up when growth stays this muted.
The debt ratio trips the ethical screen outright, and any cyclical slowdown would expose how little growth the business actually carries. Sixteen analysts may still push a buy with targets near 254 dollars, but the gap between price and value plus the leverage issue keep us away. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HON trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$212.55-2.6%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $247.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $247.
2026-07-23Markup$225.02+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $247. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$225.02+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $247. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$225.02+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $247. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$225.02+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $247. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markup$225.02+5.2%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $247. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$213.97+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $247. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markup$213.97+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $247. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Markup$213.97+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $247. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.