Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price33.47 USD
Fair value42.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-31Read Markdown35.26-5.1% to today ✓
2026-08-01Read Markup34.94-4.2% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution31.90+4.9% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. holds its Markdown at $33.47. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$33.47
Valuation
5.85 trailing · 7.07 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Reinsurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Reinsurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Hamilton Insurance Group, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 25.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Reinsurance Looks Cheap But Ethics Block Any Trade
Every time a hurricane hits or a factory burns, the bill eventually lands on a Bermuda desk like Hamilton's. The firm runs casualty reinsurance across three platforms and posts a 22% profit margin with 34% ROE, yet revenue is already falling 2%. Those numbers sit behind a forward multiple of just 7.5 times, but the ethical screen rejects the whole business outright because reinsurance itself is on the prohibited list.
We therefore pass, regardless of the 14% margin to our $40 fair value or the buy-rated analyst target near $39. The low multiple and high returns look attractive only until the activity itself is ruled out. No amount of Bermuda efficiency changes that verdict.
Cyclical insurance swings and currency moves add further volatility that the valuation does not fully price. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Bermuda and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HG trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Bermuda). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$33.47-5.1%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-31Markdown · changed$35.26+0.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$34.94+9.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-18Distribution$31.90+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-03Distribution$31.90+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$31.90Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
