An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · FormFactor, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $131.67
FormFactor Inc holds its Markup at $131.67.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-13
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days
Price
$131.67
Valuation
90.81 trailing · 37.89 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.25
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$131.67
90.81 P/E · 37.89 fwd
Our fair value
$93.43
29% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$157.50
+20% to current
Target low $64.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $175.00
▲ current $131.67 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$131.67
you are here
Conservative
$65.83
-50%
Analyst avg
$157.50
+20%
Our fair value
$93.43
-29%
Analyst high
$175.00
+33%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
31.90%
Profit margin
12.80%
Debt to equity
2.69
Analyst consensus
Buy · 8 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 2.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 14.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 18.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Probe Card Maker Priced for a Boom That May Not Last
Every chip that powers your phone or car must be tested before it ships, and FormFactor builds the delicate probe cards that do that checking. Demand surges when semiconductor plants expand, then vanishes when cycles turn. The company is posting 32% revenue growth and clearing an ethical screen, yet none of that changes the fact that shares sit 15% above our fair value at a 37.8 times forward multiple.
We pass. A weak moat, 7% ROE and 8% profit margins leave little room for error in a business whose fortunes track capital spending by chipmakers. The low single-digit return on equity already signals thin pricing power, and paying a premium multiple on peak-cycle earnings simply compounds the problem.
The real risk is the classic cyclical trap. When equipment orders slow, both revenue and the multiple can fall together, turning what looks like growth into a sharp drawdown. Even with a consensus buy rating from nine analysts, the numbers show a business valued for perfection it has not yet delivered. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 24.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 66% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 228%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $145. Entered 2026-07-30 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-30Distribution$105.57-24.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 24.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 66% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 228%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $145.
2026-07-18Distribution$139.21+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 66% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 228%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $145.
2026-07-03Distribution$139.21+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$139.21Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming FORM
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
9 Apr2026
Josh Gottheimer
Democrat
sell
15K–50K
4 Jun2026
John McGuire
Republican
buy
1K–15K
31 Jul2026
April McClain Delaney
Democrat
buy
15K–50K
29 Jul2026
April McClain Delaney
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
28 Jul2026
April McClain Delaney
Democrat
buy
15K–50K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$151.40
-23.7%
·
$763
-23.7%
2 months
$123.80
-6.7%
·
$933
-6.7%
3 months
$88.40
+30.7%
·
$1,307
+30.7%
6 months
$58.13
+98.7%
·
$1,987
+98.7%
1 year
$35.20
+228.2%
·
$3,282
+228.2%
2 years
$54.08
+113.6%
·
$2,136
+113.6%
3 years
$30.46
+279.3%
·
$3,793
+279.3%
5 years
$33.82
+241.6%
·
$3,416
+241.6%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever FORM does next, these words stay.
FormFactor Inc · FORM · Markup · $131.67
Recorded 2026-08-13 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
