An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · FirstCash Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates retail pawn stores in the United States, Mexico, rest of Latin America, and the United Kingdom.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $201.94
FirstCash Holdings Inc holds its Distribution at $201.94.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-30
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price
$201.94
Valuation
22.95 trailing · 15.48 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.53
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$201.94
22.95 P/E · 15.48 fwd
Our fair value
$220.36
9% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$245.00
+21% to current
Target low $220.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $252.00
▲ current $201.94 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$201.94
you are here
Conservative
$198.00
-2%
Analyst avg
$245.00
+21%
Our fair value
$220.36
+9%
Analyst high
$252.00
+25%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
29.40%
Profit margin
9.42%
Debt to equity
116.42
Analyst consensus
Buy · 4 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its excluded industry: credit services. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityExcluded industry: Credit ServicesFail
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Pawn shops cash in but ethics close the door
Every time a worker in Texas needs quick cash for the rent, the pawn counter offers a loan against a watch or a tool. FirstCash runs that network across the US, Mexico and beyond, yet we pass outright. The business sits in an excluded industry under our ethical screen, so the 26% revenue growth, 9% profit margin and 16% ROE never reach the table.
Forward earnings sit at 17.1 times with a weak moat and almost no margin of safety at the current price. Analyst targets sit higher, yet the opportunity rating stays at none and the ethical failure overrides any valuation math.
The real risk is that credit services like this can look stable until regulation or consumer pushback tightens the spreads. We apply the screen exactly for this reason. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. Entered 2026-07-28 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-28Distribution$213.61-5.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241.
2026-07-18Distribution$224.89+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241.
2026-07-03Distribution$224.89+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$224.89Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$232.57
-10.1%
$0.42
$901
-9.9%
2 months
$201.26
+3.9%
$0.42
$1,041
+4.1%
3 months
$190.60
+9.7%
$0.42
$1,099
+9.9%
6 months
$161.58
+29.4%
$0.84
$1,299
+29.9%
1 year
$130.65
+60.1%
$1.68
$1,613
+61.3%
2 years
$108.56
+92.6%
$3.20
$1,956
+95.6%
3 years
$93.27
+124.2%
$4.60
$2,291
+129.1%
5 years
$77.70
+169.2%
$7.12
$2,783
+178.3%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever FCFS does next, these words stay.
FirstCash Holdings Inc · FCFS · Distribution · $201.94
Recorded 2026-07-30 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
