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The Screen · Financials · Credit Services
FirstCash Holdings Inc
FCFS · NASDAQ · USD · Market cap $9.9B
FirstCash Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates retail pawn stores in the United States, Mexico, rest of Latin America, and the United Kingdom.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
227.38 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
FirstCash Holdings Inc holds its Markup at $227.38. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$227.38
Valuation
25.90 trailing · 17.36 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.53
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Credit Services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Credit Services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 1.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Pawn shops cash in but ethics close the door
Every time a worker in Texas needs quick cash for the rent, the pawn counter offers a loan against a watch or a tool. FirstCash runs that network across the US, Mexico and beyond, yet we pass outright. The business sits in an excluded industry under our ethical screen, so the 26% revenue growth, 9% profit margin and 16% ROE never reach the table.
Forward earnings sit at 17.1 times with a weak moat and almost no margin of safety at the current price. Analyst targets sit higher, yet the opportunity rating stays at none and the ethical failure overrides any valuation math.
The real risk is that credit services like this can look stable until regulation or consumer pushback tightens the spreads. We apply the screen exactly for this reason. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FCFS trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Markup · changed$236.43+10.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241.
2026-07-28Distribution$213.61-5.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241.
2026-07-18Distribution$224.89+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241.
2026-07-03Distribution$224.89+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$224.89Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
