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The Screen · Financials
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
CM · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $106.1B
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
116.86 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce holds its Distribution at $116.86. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$116.86
Valuation
15.54 trailing · 14.20 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.25
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bank Numbers Look Fine Until Ethics Bite
Picture a big Canadian lender handling mortgages and business loans across provinces where everyday customers just want reliable service. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce shows 15 percent revenue growth, a 34 percent profit margin and 15 percent ROE, yet the valuation sits above our fair value with a negative margin of safety and only a moderate moat.
We pass on this name because it fails the ethical screen on business activity. That single issue overrides the forward P/E of 15.3 times and the buy-rated analyst targets that sit below the current share price.
The real risk is that banks can look cheap on earnings multiples right before credit cycles turn, and here the ethical red flag removes any reason to dig deeper. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CM trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $119. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Markup$115.69+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $119. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markup$115.69+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $119. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Markup$115.69+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Markup$115.69+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Markup$115.69+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-21Markup$115.69-2.5%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-20Markup$118.68+1.1%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$117.44+7.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107.
2026-07-18Markup$108.84+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
