Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price32.61 USD
Fair value34.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Accumulation31.49+3.6% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown32.66-0.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 6% rise in 6 weeks
2026-08-24Read Markup30.78+5.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup
2026-07-02Read Distribution30.78+5.9% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Commercial Bancgroup Inc holds its Accumulation at $32.61. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 66 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 66 days
Price at the screen
$32.61
Valuation
11.75 trailing · 10.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Banks - Regional
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Banks - Regional
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Commercial Bancgroup does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today CBK does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 4.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CBK trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $34. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-14Markdown$30.89-5.4%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $34. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$32.66+6.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $34. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-08-24Markup · changed$30.78+0.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-24Distribution$30.78+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-18Distribution$30.78+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-03Distribution$30.78+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$30.78Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.