Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price13.97 USD
Fair value15.23
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Markdown15.02-7.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since September
2026-10-29Read Accumulation15.12-7.6% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 16% slide in 4 weeks
2026-10-02Read Distribution18.01-22.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-09-21Read Markdown18.59-24.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown while volume still accumulates
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
ARKO Petroleum Corp holds its Markdown at $13.97. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$13.97
Valuation
19.11 trailing · 15.32 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
74.44%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 74.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.57%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.01%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
ARKO Petroleum's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 74% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 1% discount to our $15.23 fair value, none competitive moat, 27.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.3% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +54% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $15.23, with a range of $15.23 to $17.51, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fuel wholesaler offers flat growth and no moat
Every time a truck pulls into a forecourt the fuel has already passed through layers of wholesalers like ARKO. The business runs three segments moving product across North America yet revenue sits flat and profit margins scrape just 1 percent with no competitive moat at all. Our fair value lands at 17.25 while the shares trade at 20.78, so the name clears no margin of safety test despite passing the ethical screen.
Forward earnings sit at 14 times but growth remains zero and the opportunity rating returns none. Five analysts carry a median target of 22 yet the numbers show a low-quality cyclical with nothing to separate it from the pack.
Oil distribution is a classic cyclical business where a modest multiple often marks peak earnings rather than a bargain. Thin margins and absent growth turn the setup into a value trap once volumes or spreads turn down.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
APC trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markdown$13.97-7.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markdown$15.02+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markdown$15.02+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markdown · changed$15.02-0.7%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$15.12+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$15.12+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$16.06+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$16.06-0.6%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-12Distribution$16.15-10.3%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.