The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 0%.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGLO
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia.
read at $19.33
Arch Capital Group Ltd. holds its Distribution at $19.33.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days |
| Price | $19.33 |
| Valuation | 4.12 trailing · N/A forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 30.0 |
| Beta | 0.31 |
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
| Trailing P/E | 4.1x very cheap relative to earnings |
| Revenue growth | -3.3% revenue is shrinking |
| Profit margin | 24.6% healthy profit margins |
| Return on equity | 21.3% an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| Debt to equity | 0.11 minimal debt — a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 0.57 below 1 — short-term bills exceed liquid assets |
| Beta | 0.31 barely tracks the market's swings |
| Employees | 8,000 |
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Bermuda and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ACGLO trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Bermuda). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 0%.
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 0%.
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $20.37 | -5.1% | · | $949 | -5.1% |
| 2 months | $20.20 | -4.3% | · | $957 | -4.3% |
| 3 months | $20.16 | -4.1% | $0.34 | $976 | -2.4% |
| 6 months | $20.47 | -5.5% | $0.68 | $978 | -2.2% |
| 1 year | $19.35 | -0.1% | $1.36 | $1,070 | +7.0% |
| 2 years | $19.84 | -2.5% | $2.73 | $1,112 | +11.2% |
| 3 years | $19.70 | -1.8% | $4.09 | $1,189 | +18.9% |
| 5 years | $19.89 | -2.8% | $6.82 | $1,315 | +31.5% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.