Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price309.98 USD
Fair value363.93
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-17Read Distribution313.72-1.2% to today ✓
2026-08-18Read Markup338.07-8.3% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution263.54+17.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Willis Towers Watson holds its Distribution at $309.98. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$309.98
Valuation
19.21 trailing · 13.56 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 17% discount to our $363.93 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 9.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 17.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Broker looks cheap yet fails ethics test
Picture a firm that helps multinationals price pensions and insure supply chains across dozens of markets. Willis Towers Watson delivers steady 8 percent revenue growth, a 17 percent profit margin and 21 percent ROE at a forward multiple of 13.2 times. The numbers look workable and the consensus target sits above the current price, yet we pass.
The decision rests on the ethical screen. The business fails the activity test and that single breach overrides any margin of safety or moderate moat. We do not need to debate valuation when the core activity screen already rules the name out.
Risks remain ordinary for the sector: currency moves, regulatory shifts and client concentration. None of those change the ethical outcome. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WTW trades on a US exchange (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $380.
2026-08-18Markup · changed$338.07+28.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 28.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $332.
2026-07-18Distribution$263.54+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $332.
2026-07-03Distribution$263.54+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$263.54Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
