Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Walmart holds its Distribution at $106.05. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$106.05
Valuation
38.42 trailing · 32.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 89.0
Beta
0.60
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
23.57%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 23.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.69%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.05%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $97.20 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 5.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 8.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 40 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +23% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Walmart's Price Reflects Inflated Expectations
Imagine every time you step into a Walmart store, you're seeing a slice of America's retail heartbeat. As the largest retailer globally, Walmart's operations span across retail and wholesale, touching the lives of millions. Yet its current stock price of $103.84 sits 2% above our fair value estimate of $101.41, which doesn't leave much room for error. Why it stands out, or rather, why we're cautious, is the high forward P/E ratio of 31.7x, which is a rich valuation for a business with a weak moat and profit margins of just 3%.
The market consensus is overwhelmingly bullish, with 38 analysts giving it a buy rating and a median target of $140. However, this optimism seems detached from the company's weak competitive advantage in a rapidly evolving retail landscape where电子商务 and digital transformation play critical roles. Risk sits in the potential overvaluation and the company's ability to maintain its market position amidst fierce competition and changing consumer habits.
While Walmart has ethically passed our screen, the investment case is less compelling. The numbers whisper caution, particularly for those seeking a margin of safety. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WMT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-20Markup$112.34+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (42 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $138. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-19Markup$112.34+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (42 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $138. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-18Markup$112.34+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (42 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $138. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-16Markup$112.34+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (42 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $138. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-15Markup · changed$112.34+0.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (42 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $138. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-14Distribution$112.34+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (42 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $138. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-13Distribution$112.34-5.5%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (42 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $138. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$118.88+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (42 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $138. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-03Distribution$118.88+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$118.88Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
