Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price104.52 USD
Fair value99.14
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-09Read Markdown113.63-8.0% to today ✓
2026-08-09Read Markup119.13-12.3% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution113.80-8.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
PPG Industries holds its Markdown at $104.52. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 60 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 60 days
Price at the screen
$104.52
Valuation
15.00 trailing · 12.05 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.06
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
35.73%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 35.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.36%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.38%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.96%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $99.14 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 7.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 5.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Paint maker looks cheap but fails us
Every time a builder slaps another coat on a skyscraper or a car rolls off the line, the cycle of demand for specialty chemicals rises and falls with the economy. PPG sits in that rhythm, yet we pass because the shares trade 15% above our fair value and the ethical screen flags excessive debt.
Revenue is growing at 7% with 10% margins and a solid 21% return on equity, but the forward multiple of 13.6 times still fails to compensate for a narrow moat and the fact that peak-cycle earnings often flatter these numbers. Analysts may like the name and see 127 dollars ahead, yet the gap between price and value tells us to stay clear.
The real warning is the cyclical value trap: low multiples at the top of the cycle are rarely bargains, and the debt ratio breach adds another layer of risk that no recovery story fixes. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PPG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$113.63-4.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $126.
2026-08-09Markup · changed$119.13+4.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $123.
2026-07-18Distribution$113.80+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $123.
2026-07-03Distribution$113.80+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$113.80Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
