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The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
PG&E Corporation
PCG · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $28.5B · 29,010 employees
PG&E Corporation, through its subsidiary, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, engages in the sale and delivery of electricity and natural gas to customers in northern and central California, the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
12.94 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 12.94 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 23.39, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price12.94 USD
Fair value23.39
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-09Read Distribution17.60-26.5% to today ✓
2026-08-08Read Markup17.20-24.8% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution17.11-24.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
PG&E Corporation holds its Distribution at $12.94. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$12.94
Valuation
9.31 trailing · 7.18 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.25
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.31%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 43.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.99%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.10%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.09%
Below 5%
Only 2.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 81% discount to our $23.39 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 0.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 80.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +53% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
California utility stumbles on debt before value
PG&E keeps the lights on across northern and central California, yet its balance sheet carries more debt than our ethical screen will allow. The numbers show 15% revenue growth, 11% margins and a 9.6 times forward earnings multiple, but the debt ratio alone ends the conversation.
We pass for that reason. A narrow moat and 9% return on equity do not offset the leverage issue, even when the shares sit well below our own fair value estimate. Sixteen analysts may call it a buy with a 23 dollar median target, yet the ethical flag takes priority.
The real risk sits in that debt within a regulated business where cash flows can tighten quickly under political or weather pressure. Low multiples on utilities often signal exactly this kind of constraint rather than a bargain.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PCG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-08-08Markup · changed$17.20+0.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-18Distribution$17.11+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-03Distribution$17.11+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$17.11Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
