Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price276.10 USD
Fair value391.85
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-31Read Markdown298.20-7.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution293.04-5.8% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Huntington Ingalls Industries holds its Markdown at $276.10. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$276.10
Valuation
16.78 trailing · 13.52 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Divest List
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by AFSC divest list as a major naval defense contractor supplying warships and military vessels used in military operations. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 42% discount to our $391.85 fair value, weak competitive moat, 10.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 41.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +33% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Warship Builder Trips Hard Ethical Screen
Every time Congress votes through another carrier or destroyer, the work lands at Huntington Ingalls. The company turns those budgets into steel hulls and combat systems, yet the ethical screen rules it out on business activity grounds alone.
We pass for the same reason we passed on other defence names that clear the numbers test. Revenue is growing 13 percent, the forward multiple sits at 13.3 times, and margins are thin at 5 percent with a weak moat. None of that matters once the screen lights up red.
The 12 percent return on equity and buy-rated analyst targets do not change the call. This screen exists to keep certain exposures off the desk, full stop. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HII trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-31Markdown · changed$298.20-0.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $388.
2026-08-01Distribution$299.90+2.3%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $388.
2026-07-18Distribution$293.04+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $388.
2026-07-03Distribution$293.04+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$293.04Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
