Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price40.10 USD
Fair value52.82
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-24Read Markup44.74-10.4% to today
2026-07-24Read Markdown43.61-8.0% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation42.85-6.4% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Central Garden & Pet Company holds its Markdown at $40.10. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$40.10
Valuation
14.85 trailing · 13.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.54
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
39.73%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 39.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
33.31%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 33.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.80%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 31.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Pet treats and lawn feed rarely spark investor excitement
When a dog owner reaches for chews or a gardener stocks up on fertiliser, Central Garden & Pet sits behind the transaction. The business splits between pet supplies and garden products, both steady categories that grow with household spending rather than economic booms. Revenue is rising 9 percent, the forward multiple sits at 14.2 times, and the shares trade 11 percent below our fair value of 48.41 dollars. Yet the opportunity rating remains none, because the 5 percent profit margin and 11 percent return on equity show limited ability to compound capital.
The ethical screen clears without issue, and two analysts carry a buy consensus with a 48 dollar median target. That leaves a narrow gap between price and value, but nothing that suggests durable advantage or accelerating growth. Unknown moat and thin returns on equity keep the story ordinary rather than compelling.
Cyclical garden demand can swing with weather and housing cycles, while pet margins stay under pressure from private-label competition. Low returns signal the risk of value traps where earnings look stable yet fail to lift the share price over time. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CENT trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-24Markup · changed$44.74+2.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-24Markdown · changed$43.61+1.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-18Accumulation$42.85+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-03Accumulation$42.85+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$42.85Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
