Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Burlington Stores, Inc. holds its Distribution at $239.18. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$239.18
Valuation
21.47 trailing · 17.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
1.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
29.47%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 29.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.05%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 39.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +54% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Discount Retailer Offers Little Margin for Error
Picture a shopper hunting for marked-down coats while the rest of the high street charges full price. Burlington keeps posting 14% revenue growth and a 39% return on equity, yet the shares sit 2% above our fair value with a forward multiple of 25 times. The moderate moat and clean ethical screen are real, but they do not offset the lack of any valuation cushion.
Profit margins remain thin at 5%, so any slip in volumes hits earnings hard. Analysts see further upside to a $375 median target, yet that optimism already appears baked into the current price. Without a clear edge on cost or scale versus bigger rivals, the growth story feels fully priced.
Consumer cyclical businesses can look steady until spending slows, and this name carries no buffer if that happens. The numbers are respectable, but they do not justify stretching above fair value today.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BURL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-27Markdown · changed$326.50+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Distribution$326.50+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Distribution$326.50+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Distribution$326.50+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Distribution$326.50+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Distribution$326.50-11.6%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-20Markup · changed$369.34+7.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$345.31+8.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368.
2026-07-18Distribution$317.05+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
