Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.43, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price250.77 USD
Fair value333.85
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markdown262.66-4.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since August
2026-10-21Read Accumulation262.66-4.5% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Markup266.39-5.9% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after an 18% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-27Read Markdown326.50-23.2% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 12% slide in 6 days
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Burlington Stores, Inc. holds its Distribution at $250.77. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$250.77
Valuation
21.30 trailing · 17.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
1.43
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
29.47%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 29.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.05%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.18%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Burlington Stores, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 29%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today BURL passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 25% discount to our $333.85 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 11.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 24.9% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $333.85, with a range of $270.00 to $383.93, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Discount Retailer Offers Little Margin for Error
Picture a shopper hunting for marked-down coats while the rest of the high street charges full price. Burlington keeps posting 14% revenue growth and a 39% return on equity, yet the shares sit 2% above our fair value with a forward multiple of 25 times. The moderate moat and clean ethical screen are real, but they do not offset the lack of any valuation cushion.
Profit margins remain thin at 5%, so any slip in volumes hits earnings hard. Analysts see further upside to a $375 median target, yet that optimism already appears baked into the current price. Without a clear edge on cost or scale versus bigger rivals, the growth story feels fully priced.
Consumer cyclical businesses can look steady until spending slows, and this name carries no buffer if that happens. The numbers are respectable, but they do not justify stretching above fair value today.
Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BURL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markdown$239.90-8.7%Entry 17
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368.
2026-10-28Markdown · changed$262.66+0.0%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368.
2026-10-14Markup$276.97+4.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$266.39-18.4%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 18.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368.
2026-08-27Markdown · changed$326.50+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Distribution$326.50+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Distribution$326.50+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Distribution$326.50+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Distribution$326.50+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $368. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
