Framework Journal · one stock, one dated entry

Recorded 2026-07-24 · Permanent

Advanced Micro Devices logoAdvanced Micro Devices AMD

Clears both ethical standards

An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.

In plain words · Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

The label
Markup

read at $521.95

Advanced Micro Devices holds its Markup at $521.95.

PHINPOOPSC
  • PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
  • INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
  • POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
  • OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
  • SCScreen · passes the values gate
  • edge confirmed
  • edge broken
  • edge forming

Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.

The investor read · the season, not the day

As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
PhaseMarkup
Quantitative stateThe statistical read favours the sellers, held for 13 days
Price$521.95
Valuation172.83 trailing · 38.62 forward price to earnings
Values screenPASS · score 90.2
Beta2.47

The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth

Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades above our $344.60 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 37.80% revenue growth.

Read at
$521.95
172.83 P/E · 38.62 fwd
Our fair value
$344.60
34% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$575.00
+10% to current
Target low $320.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $1,250.00
▲ current $521.95 · | average target

Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going

$1,343$666$-12TODAY5y agoPROJECTIONAnalyst high$1,250.00 +177%Analyst avg$575.00 +27%Our fair value$344.60 -24%Conservative$288.00 -36%

The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street

Current
$521.95
you are here
Conservative
$288.00
-45%
Analyst avg
$575.00
+10%
Our fair value
$344.60
-34%
Analyst high
$1,250.00
+139%

Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.

Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.

Revenue growth37.80%
Profit margin13.37%
Debt to equity6.01
Analyst consensusStrong Buy · 47 covering

Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.

The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English

This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:

The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✓ PASSES

What these two standards are, and how they differ →

  • Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
  • Debt load Interest-bearing debt is just 5.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money. Pass
  • Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.5% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
  • Receivables Money owed to the company is 15.4% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
  • Revenue purity Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass

Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.

The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean

AI chip dreams meet a steep price tag

Picture a foundry running flat out on AI orders while the next downturn waits around the corner. AMD is riding that wave, yet its shares sit well above our fair value with a 34 percent negative margin of safety. At 36.8 times forward earnings the market is paying up for growth that has already been well flagged, and the narrow moat leaves little room for error when cycles turn.

Revenue is climbing 38 percent, yet profit margins sit at just 13 percent and return on equity is only 8 percent. Those figures do not justify the premium, especially in a cyclical semiconductor business where peak earnings often coincide with peak multiples. The ethical screen clears, which removes one objection, but valuation discipline still rules.

The real risk is the classic cyclical trap dressed up as growth. When demand normalises, earnings can fall faster than the multiple compresses, leaving holders with both lower profits and a re-rating. Analysis, not advice.

The fundamentals · plain-English read
Forward P/E38.6x
fairly priced for its growth rate
Trailing P/E172.8x
expensive — the price assumes strong growth ahead
Revenue growth37.8%
strong top-line growth
Profit margin13.4%
thin but positive margins
Return on equity8.1%
a modest return on shareholder capital
Debt to equity0.06
minimal debt — a conservative balance sheet
Current ratio2.73
comfortably covers its short-term bills
Beta2.47
much more volatile than the market
Market cap$851.1B
Employees31,000

The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.

Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.

Latest news · what the market is reading on AMD

Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.

Related securities · others in AMD's space worth a look

Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.

Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are

AMD trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.

The trader read · the latest dated commentary

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-31 · Markup

The dated journal · newest first, never edited

2026-07-31 Markup $521.95 +0.0% Entry 8

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-30 Markup $521.95 +0.0% Entry 7

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-28 Markup $521.95 +5.3% Entry 6

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-21 Markup $495.76 +6.3% Entry 5

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.

2026-07-18 Markup $466.38 +0.0% Entry 4

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.

2026-07-17 Markup $466.38 +0.0% Entry 3

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (90). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.

2026-07-03 Markup $466.38 +0.0% Entry 2

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (90). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.

2026-07-02 Markup $466.38 Entry 1

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (90). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.

Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.

The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed

Most recent filings · AMD
DateInsiderTitleTypeSharesValue
2026-05-20 Norrod Forrest Eugene EVP, GM DESG Sale 19,487 $8,406,784
2026-05-15 Papermaster Mark D CTO, EVP Sale 6,000 $2,602,740
2026-05-13 Su Lisa T Chair, Pres, CEO Sale 125,000 $55,688,359
2026-05-08 Grasby Paul Darren EVP, CSO Sale 24,376 $10,832,451
2026-04-24 Papermaster Mark D CTO, EVP Sale 31,320 $10,962,000
2026-04-15 Papermaster Mark D CTO, EVP Sale 33,109 $8,988,215
2026-04-06 Papermaster Mark D CTO, EVP Sale 3,293 $740,925
2026-03-12 Su Lisa T Chair, Pres, CEO Sale 85,000 $16,895,157
2026-03-11 Grasby Paul Darren EVP, CSO Sale 7,500 $1,536,525
2026-03-04 Papermaster Mark D CTO, EVP Sale 3,034 $606,800

Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.

The political ledger · congressional disclosures

Disclosures naming AMD
DatePoliticianPartyTypeAmount
5 May2026 Josh Gottheimer Democrat buy 1K–15K
5 Jun2026 Gil Cisneros Democrat buy 1K–15K
27 Apr2026 Josh Gottheimer Democrat buy 1K–15K
23 Apr2026 Josh Gottheimer Democrat buy 1K–15K
2026-04-27 Josh Gottheimer Democrat Purchase 1K–15K

What holding actually paid · price plus dividends

If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
PeriodPrice thenPrice returnDivs per share$1,000 becameTotal return
1 month $458.79 -1.7% · $983 -1.7%
2 months $245.04 +84.1% · $1,841 +84.1%
3 months $197.74 +128.1% · $2,281 +128.1%
6 months $221.43 +103.7% · $2,037 +103.7%
1 year $123.24 +266.0% · $3,660 +266.0%
2 years $160.34 +181.3% · $2,813 +181.3%
3 years $124.92 +261.1% · $3,611 +261.1%
5 years $81.31 +454.7% · $5,547 +454.7%

Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AMD does next, these words stay.

Advanced Micro Devices · AMD · Markup · $521.95
Recorded 2026-07-24 · before the outcome · scored mechanically

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