Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-22
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price341.07 USD
Fair value263.36
Ethical score76.1/100
RatingOVERVALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markup341.07+0.0% to today ✓
2026-08-29Read Distribution311.30+9.6% to today
2026-07-30Read Markup333.02+2.4% to today ✓
2026-07-20Read Accumulation333.74+2.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Apple Inc. holds its Accumulation at $341.07. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 44 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 44 days
Price at the screen
$341.07
Valuation
39.07 trailing · 35.58 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 76.1
Beta
1.09
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
27.46%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 27.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
21.64%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 21.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
21.08%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 21.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Apple clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 27%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $263.36 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 16.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 22.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 39 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −0% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
iPhone Giant's Market Valuation Overshadows Value
Imagine for a moment a world without iPhone - it's nearly impossible, right? That's Apple's influence. From smartphones and tablets to wearables and home accessories, the California tech giant has made itself indispensable to daily life, worldwide. The company's robust revenue growth of 16%, coupled with a profit margin of 28%, underpins its strong market presence and financial performance. Why it stands out is not just in its moat, but in its ability to consistently innovate and lead in consumer electronics.
However, despite Apple’s dominant position, the market is currently pricing AAPL at a significant premium. Our fair value sits at $260.41, which indicates the stock is overvalued by -16%. This high valuation, paired with a forward P/E of 32.6x, suggests that while the business is good, the price might not be. The consensus rating from 40 analysts may be a 'buy' with a median target of $335, but this doesn't change the fact that current valuations are lofty.
Risks for Apple are multifaceted. They include the cyclical nature of tech markets, potential regulatory challenges, and the ever-present competitive landscape. Given these factors, investors should consider whether the current price justifies the potential downside. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AAPL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markup · changed$341.07+9.6%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-30Markup · changed$333.02+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Accumulation$333.02+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Accumulation$333.02+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Accumulation$333.02+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Accumulation$333.02-0.2%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Accumulation$333.74+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Accumulation$333.74+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Accumulation$333.74+8.6%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
