Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price2,960.00 USD
Fair value2,852.13
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown2,960.00+0.0% to today
2026-09-19Read Accumulation2,941.00+0.6% to today ✓
2026-08-20Read Distribution2,962.50-0.1% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup2,836.50+4.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Tobu Railway Co., Ltd. holds its Markdown at $2,960.00. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$2,960.00
Valuation
10.46 trailing · 12.98 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.08
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.44%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
5.66%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.96%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Tobu Railway's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 44% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
9001.T trades on JPX (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$2,960.00+0.6%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3175.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3175.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3175.
2026-07-20Markup$3,054.00+7.7%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3175.
2026-07-18Markup$2,836.50+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3175.
2026-07-16Markup$2,836.50+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3175.
2026-07-03Markup$2,836.50+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$2,836.50Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
Latest News · What the Market Is Reading on 9001.T