An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company engages in real estate activities in Saudi Arabia.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $16.39
Umm Al Qura for Development and holds its Markup at $16.39.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2025-12-31
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days
Price
$16.39
Valuation
26.87 trailing · N/A forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
N/A
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$16.39
26.87 P/E · N/A fwd
Our fair value
$2.44
542% premium
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$16.39
you are here
Our fair value
$2.44
-85%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Revenue growth
-84.10%
Profit margin
35.01%
Debt to equity
45.87
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 29.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money. Against market value it is 31.0%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it.Divergent
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 7.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 9.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. Entered 2026-07-19 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-19Markdown$17.10+9.2%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 9.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%.
2026-07-18Markdown$15.66+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%.
2026-07-15Markdown$15.66+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-03Markdown$15.66+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$15.66Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$15.81
+5.5%
·
$1,055
+5.5%
2 months
$16.98
-1.8%
·
$982
-1.8%
3 months
$16.27
+2.5%
·
$1,025
+2.5%
6 months
$18.50
-9.8%
·
$902
-9.8%
1 year
$23.08
-27.7%
·
$723
-27.7%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever 4325.SR does next, these words stay.
Umm Al Qura for Development and · 4325.SR · Markup · $16.39
Recorded 2025-12-31 · before the outcome · scored mechanically