Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price65.38 USD
Fair value32.69
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown64.56+1.3% to today
2026-09-03Read Markup69.15-5.5% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution64.92+0.7% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The St. Joe Company holds its Markdown at $65.38. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-02
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$65.38
Valuation
30.69 trailing · 594.36 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.29
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.72%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.11%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.56%
Below 5%
Only 2.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The St. Joe's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 38% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 50.0% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Florida land bets priced far beyond reason
Picture a developer turning raw Florida acres into homes, hotels and offices. The St. Joe Company does exactly that across its residential, hospitality and commercial units, yet the market values the whole business at twice our calculated worth. Revenue edges up just five percent a year while the forward multiple sits at 550 times earnings, an absurd price for steady but unremarkable property work.
We pass because nothing in the numbers justifies the stretch. Profit margins of 22 percent and a 15 percent return on equity look respectable on their own, yet they cannot support such a premium when growth stays modest and the moat remains unclear. The ethical screen clears, which removes one objection, but valuation alone rules this out.
Real estate cycles can flatten earnings quickly and leave high multiples stranded, so the gap between price and fair value carries real downside. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JOE trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$64.56-6.6%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%.
2026-09-03Markup · changed$69.15+14.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%.
2026-08-03Distribution$60.55-6.7%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%.
2026-07-18Distribution$64.92+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%.
2026-07-03Distribution$64.92+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$64.92Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
