OSG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $252M · 483 employees
Octave Specialty Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, primarily engages in the specialty property and casualty insurance business in the United States and the United Kingdom.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
5.60 USD
At the last full screen 2026-06-14
Screened 2026-06-14 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Octave Specialty Group Inc holds its Markup at $5.60. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-06-14
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$5.60
Valuation
N/A trailing · 6.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.85
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Insurance - Specialty
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Insurance - Specialty
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-06-14 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +168% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-06-14 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
OSG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-08Distribution · changed$5.60+0.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-08-07Markup$5.60+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-18Markup$5.60+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-03Markup$5.60+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$5.60Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$5.57
-0.3%
·
$997
-0.3%
2 months
$3.94
+41.0%
·
$1,410
+41.0%
3 months
$5.20
+6.8%
·
$1,068
+6.8%
6 months
$8.37
-33.6%
·
$664
-33.6%
1 year
$6.73
-17.5%
·
$825
-17.5%
2 years
$13.00
-57.3%
·
$427
-57.3%
3 years
$13.86
-59.9%
·
$401
-59.9%
5 years
$15.68
-64.6%
·
$354
-64.6%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever OSG does next, these words stay.
Octave Specialty Group Inc · OSG · Markup · $5.60
Recorded 2026-06-14 · before the outcome · scored mechanically