Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 21.70, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price306.86 USD
Fair value317.50
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Distribution303.55+1.1% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 10% slide in 2 weeks
2026-10-15Read Accumulation335.51-8.5% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown325.94-5.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 16% slide in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution386.85-20.7% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Woodward Inc holds its Markup at $306.86. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 40 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 40 days
Price at the screen
$306.86
Valuation
33.89 trailing · 28.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.86
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Woodward does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $317.50 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 21.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.4% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +37% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $317.50, with a range of $317.50 to $365.13, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Defence Controls Maker Trades Well Above Value
Every jet engine and industrial turbine needs precise fuel metering to stay safe and efficient, and Woodward builds many of those control systems. Revenue is growing 23 percent, returns on equity sit at 21 percent, and analysts rate the shares a strong buy with a 450 dollar median target.
We pass for two straightforward reasons. The price at 393 dollars sits 15 percent above our fair value, and a 36 times forward earnings multiple offers no margin of safety. The business also fails our ethical screen because of its work in aerospace and defence.
That mix of stretched valuation and excluded industry exposure leaves nothing attractive here. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WWD trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Distribution$326.37+7.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $437.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $437.
2026-10-22Accumulation$328.48-2.1%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $437.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $437.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$325.94-3.5%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $437.
2026-09-17Distribution$337.66-9.5%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $437.
2026-08-18Distribution$373.28-3.5%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $437.
2026-07-18Distribution$386.85+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $437.
2026-07-03Distribution$386.85+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$386.85Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
