NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,418+0.42%BTC$81,092+6.14%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 21:00 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Waste Management
Waste Connections Inc
WCN · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $40.2B · 24,214 employees
Waste Connections, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
159.74 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Waste Connections Inc holds its Markdown at $159.74. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$159.74
Valuation
38.49 trailing · 25.73 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.47
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.21%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 43.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.07%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.13%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 2.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 25 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Trash runs pay steady but cost too much
Every household wheels out the bins each week without a second thought. Waste Connections handles that unglamorous but essential work across the US and Canada, collecting steady revenue from residential and industrial customers alike.
The business clears our ethical screen and shows solid 11 percent margins with 13 percent ROE. Yet at 27.8 times forward earnings and just 6 percent revenue growth the shares sit 5 percent above our fair value with only a narrow moat. Analyst targets look optimistic next to those numbers.
The main risks sit in industrial waste volumes that can drop when energy and construction slow, plus the usual pressure from local competitors on pricing. Nothing dramatic, just enough to keep the margin of safety negative. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WCN trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-16Markdown · changed$159.74-4.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $204.
2026-08-16Distribution$167.39+7.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $204.
2026-07-18Distribution$156.11+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $204.
2026-07-03Distribution$156.11+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$156.11Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
