Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price99.39 USD
Fair value87.55
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-11Read Markup99.39+0.0% to today ✓
2026-08-11Read Distribution99.65-0.3% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup105.35-5.7% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Rio Tinto plc ADR holds its Distribution at $99.39. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 20 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 20 days
Price at the screen
$99.39
Valuation
13.45 trailing · 11.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.66
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.36%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.43%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.46%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.12%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 11.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Iron Ore Giant with a Cyclical Risk
Imagine the world's largest construction sites are all humming with activity, this is when Rio Tinto shines. The company mines and processes iron ore, aluminium, lithium, and copper — commodities that are the backbone of industrial growth. Rio Tinto's operations span the globe, with a particular focus on Western Australia's rich iron ore fields.
Why it stands out is its robust revenue growth of 16% and a solid 20% profit margin, yet the stock trades at a forward P/E of 12.1x. These figures might seem attractive, but remember, the mining sector is cyclical. Its current low P/E ratio could be a warning sign of peak earnings, not a bargain. Rio Tinto's narrow moat suggests it doesn't have significant competitive advantages, which is something to consider in volatile commodity markets.
The risk here is twofold: the cyclical nature of the industry and the company's narrow moat. The market consensus is a 'buy' with a median target of $102, yet our fair value sits at $87.55, reflecting a -16% margin of safety. This discrepancy, combined with the industry's cyclical tendencies, means investors should tread carefully. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RIO trades on the NYSE (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-11Markup · changed$99.39-0.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-07-18Markup$105.35+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-07-03Markup$105.35+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$105.35Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.