Screened 2026-08-25 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Gold Fields Ltd ADR holds its Markup at $48.87. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 86 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-25
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 86 days
Price at the screen
$48.87
Valuation
12.40 trailing · 9.09 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.60
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
21.16%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 21.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.94%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.63%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.61%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold Miner Metrics Look Tempting Yet Misleading
Picture a miner hitting rich seams just as the gold price peaks and everyone piles in. Gold Fields shows revenue up 71 percent, a 41 percent profit margin and 52 percent ROE, all at a forward P/E of 6 times. The shares sit at 31.99 dollars against a 43.19 dollar fair value, a 35 percent margin of safety, and the ethical screen clears it.
Yet the opportunity rating stays at none. This is a classic cyclical value trap. Low multiples in gold mining often flag peak earnings rather than bargains, and a narrow moat leaves little protection once metal prices turn.
Currency swings in South Africa, volatile gold and copper prices, and execution risk across multiple continents keep the real downside alive even if analysts eye 50 dollars. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to South Africa and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GFI trades on the NYSE (the company is based in South Africa). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Markup · changed$48.87+48.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 48.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-31Markdown · changed$32.91-9.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-18Distribution$36.50+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-03Distribution$36.50+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$36.50Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
