Screened 2026-09-17 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
ARKO Petroleum Corp holds its Accumulation at $18.59. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$18.59
Valuation
22.95 trailing · 17.54 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
74.44%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 74.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.57%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.01%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 15.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fuel wholesaler offers flat growth and no moat
Every time a truck pulls into a forecourt the fuel has already passed through layers of wholesalers like ARKO. The business runs three segments moving product across North America yet revenue sits flat and profit margins scrape just 1 percent with no competitive moat at all. Our fair value lands at 17.25 while the shares trade at 20.78, so the name clears no margin of safety test despite passing the ethical screen.
Forward earnings sit at 14 times but growth remains zero and the opportunity rating returns none. Five analysts carry a median target of 22 yet the numbers show a low-quality cyclical with nothing to separate it from the pack.
Oil distribution is a classic cyclical business where a modest multiple often marks peak earnings rather than a bargain. Thin margins and absent growth turn the setup into a value trap once volumes or spreads turn down.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
APC trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-21Markup$20.78+1.3%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-18Markup$20.52+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-17Markup$20.52+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-03Markup$20.52+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$20.52Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.