An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · AerCap Holdings N.V.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $154.09
Aercap Holdings NV holds its Markup at $154.09.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-29
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 38 days
Price
$154.09
Valuation
6.64 trailing · 8.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.93
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$154.09
6.64 P/E · 8.94 fwd
Our fair value
$180.00
17% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$175.00
+14% to current
Target low $155.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $180.00
▲ current $154.09 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$154.09
you are here
Conservative
$174.88
+13%
Analyst avg
$175.00
+14%
Our fair value
$180.00
+17%
Analyst high
$180.00
+17%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
7.90%
Profit margin
45.22%
Debt to equity
234.41
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 9 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 186.1%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it.Divergent
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Aircraft lessors look cheap until fleets sit idle
Every time a carrier parks jets in the desert after a shock, the leasing companies that own them feel the pain first. AerCap shows solid 45 percent profit margins, 22 percent ROE and 8 percent revenue growth, yet we pass. The forward multiple of 8.6 times flatters peak-cycle earnings in a business that rises and falls with airline health, and our opportunity rating sits at none despite the 22 percent gap to fair value.
The narrow moat and ethical screen clearance do not change the core issue. Aircraft demand is tied to global travel cycles that can turn quickly, leaving lessors with idle assets and stretched balance sheets. Analyst targets cluster near 175, close to our own 180, but that consensus often ignores how fast earnings can drop when traffic falls.
Risk sits in the cyclical exposure and the narrow competitive edge that offers little protection when orders slow. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Ireland and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166. Entered 2026-07-20 · Accumulation
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-07-18Distribution$140.00+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-07-16Distribution$140.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-07-03Distribution$140.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$140.00Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$145.82
-8.2%
$0.40
$921
-7.9%
2 months
$145.13
-7.8%
$0.40
$925
-7.5%
3 months
$132.75
+0.8%
$0.40
$1,011
+1.1%
6 months
$140.39
-4.7%
$0.80
$959
-4.1%
1 year
$114.42
+17.0%
$1.07
$1,179
+17.9%
2 years
$90.42
+48.0%
$2.11
$1,503
+50.3%
3 years
$58.35
+129.4%
$2.36
$2,334
+133.4%
5 years
$56.41
+137.3%
$2.36
$2,414
+141.4%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AER does next, these words stay.
Aercap Holdings NV · AER · Markup · $154.09
Recorded 2026-07-29 · before the outcome · scored mechanically