Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd holds its Markup at $196.68. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 25 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 25 days
Price at the screen
$196.68
Valuation
16.82 trailing · 15.74 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.67
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.93%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
4.13%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.37%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.49%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 18.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold Miners Show Peak Earnings Then Fade
Picture a miner riding a gold price surge that lifts revenue 66 percent in a year. Agnico Eagle delivers 39 percent profit margins and 22 percent returns on equity, with a narrow moat and a clean ethical screen. The shares trade at 10.4 times forward earnings, well below our $172 fair value, yet the opportunity rating sits at none.
We pass because this remains a classic cyclical value trap. Low multiples often appear when earnings crest with metal prices, not when they offer lasting bargains. Analyst targets sit higher at $234, yet those forecasts rest on assumptions about sustained high gold prices that history shows rarely hold.
Commodity swings, rising costs in remote sites and sudden shifts in global demand sit at the heart of the risk. Even strong current numbers can erode fast when the cycle turns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AEM trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Markup · changed$217.89+50.1%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 50.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $250.
2026-07-28Distribution$145.13+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $250. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$145.13+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $250. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$145.13+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $250. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$145.13+6.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $250. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$136.97+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $250. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$136.97+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $250. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Distribution$136.97+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $250. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Distribution$136.97-15.8%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 15.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $250.
2026-07-18Distribution$162.64+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $250.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
