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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.
ZGN · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.9B · 7,243 employees
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V., together with its subsidiaries, designs, produces, markets, and distributes luxury menswear and womenwear, children's clothing, footwear, leather goods, and other accessories worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
11.60 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. holds its Markdown at $11.60. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$11.60
Valuation
33.14 trailing · 18.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.88
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.49%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.31%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.78%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.12%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 22.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +26% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Luxury Labels Hit a Wall With Zero Growth
Picture a Milan tailor still charging premium prices while the same number of customers walk through the door each year. Ermenegildo Zegna finds itself in exactly that position, with revenue flat and a forward multiple of 22.8 times earnings that leaves almost no margin of safety at the current share price.
The business clears our ethical screen and carries a modest 11 percent return on equity, yet the lack of top-line momentum in a cyclical luxury market makes the valuation look stretched rather than attractive. Analyst targets sit only slightly above the current level, offering little cushion if spending patterns shift.
Cyclical consumer spending can turn quickly, and any slowdown would expose the thin 5 percent profit margin without the buffer of growth. This leaves the shares looking fairly valued at best, not compelling. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Italy and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ZGN trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Italy). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-18Markdown · changed$11.60-22.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 22.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Markup$14.70+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Markup$14.70+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$14.70Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
