NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 17:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Capital Markets
XP Inc.
XP · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $10.1B
XP Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
19.97 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
XP Inc. holds its Markup at $19.97. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$19.97
Valuation
10.09 trailing · 8.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.10
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 31.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
Picture a young professional in Sao Paulo opening an app to buy shares or a fund for the first time. XP built the platform that makes those trades simple and cheap across Brazil. Revenue is growing at 10 percent, margins sit near 29 percent and return on equity reaches 23 percent, all at a forward multiple of just 7.1 times. On paper the numbers look attractive next to a fair value well above the current price.
We pass regardless. The business sits squarely inside financial services, which triggers an automatic fail on our ethical screen. No amount of margin of safety or analyst buy ratings changes that rule. We apply the screen precisely so we do not have to debate individual cases after the fact.
The low multiple also carries the usual warning for financial platforms. Revenue can slow quickly when Brazilian rates or markets turn, and currency swings add another layer of volatility that is hard to forecast. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Cayman Islands and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
XP trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Cayman Islands). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-17Markup · changed$19.97+19.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 19.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-08-18Markdown · changed$16.68+4.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-18Distribution$16.02+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-03Distribution$16.02+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$16.02Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.