NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,417−0.18%BTC$81,133−0.12%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sonoco Products Company
SON · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.7B · 22,000 employees
Sonoco Products Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells various engineered and sustainable packaging products in the United States, Europe, Canada, the Asia Pacific, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
47.84 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 47.84 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 59.97, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price47.84 USD
Fair value59.97
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-13Read Distribution47.84+0.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Markup50.57-5.4% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Sonoco Products Company holds its Distribution at $47.84. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$47.84
Valuation
7.39 trailing · 7.56 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.35
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
41.12%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 41.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.94%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.27%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 25.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Everyday packaging caught in a shrinking cycle
Think of Sonoco as the firm that makes the tins, tubes and trays behind supermarket shelves and e-commerce parcels. Demand should be steady, yet revenue is already falling 2 percent and the business sits squarely in the consumer cyclical camp. The forward multiple of 8.8 times looks tempting next to a 20 percent return on equity, but that combination often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain.
We pass because the low multiple is the warning, not the opportunity. A 14 percent profit margin and unknown moat give little cushion once volumes keep sliding, and the gap between the current price and our fair value remains unconvincing once cyclical earnings are stripped out. Analyst targets sit only modestly higher, offering no real margin of safety.
Currency swings, raw-material costs and any fresh dip in consumer spending sit on the risk side, even though the ethical screen is clear. In a sector this exposed to the economic cycle, cheap can stay cheap for longer than expected. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SON trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 16.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-08-13Markup$57.07+12.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-07-18Markup$50.57+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-07-03Markup$50.57+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$50.57Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
