Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. holds its Markup at $83.60. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$83.60
Valuation
4.91 trailing · 6.04 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.77
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
32.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 32.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.44%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap Refiner Faces The Classic Cycle Trap
Every time crude prices swing, refiners like this one can post fat margins for a quarter or two. Par Pacific shows a forward multiple of just 7.3 times and a 33 percent return on equity, yet revenue growth sits at only 4 percent and the opportunity rating is none. The low multiple is not a bargain. It is the market signalling that current earnings sit near a cyclical peak.
We pass because the business lives and dies with oil spreads and crack margins that rarely stay elevated for long. A 6 percent profit margin offers little cushion once demand softens or feedstock costs spike. The ethical screen clears, but that alone does not turn a commodity refiner into a durable holding.
The real risk is the value-trap pattern common in this sector: earnings look cheap on peak numbers, then collapse and the multiple expands anyway. Analyst targets sit near current levels with no margin of safety once the cycle turns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PARR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markup$75.77+14.3%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 157%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-08-08Markup · changed$66.29+18.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 18.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 157%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-18Distribution$55.82+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 157%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-03Distribution$55.82+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$55.82Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
