Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.21, read 2026-10-25
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price60.15 USD
Fair value68.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Accumulation57.95+3.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-10-02Read Markdown58.66+2.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-09-08Read Distribution61.53-2.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-08-07Read Markup62.11-3.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 6% rise in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited holds its Accumulation at $60.15. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 68 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 68 days
Price at the screen
$60.15
Valuation
10.57 trailing · 8.10 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.54
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when NTB's ethical verdict changes
Today NTB does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 13.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bermuda Bank Shows Solid Numbers But We Pass
Every time a local business in Bermuda deposits its takings or a private client wires funds across the Atlantic, the money moves through this long-established island lender. Yet we pass, because the ethical screen flags the entire banking sector and that verdict is final regardless of the headline figures.
The shares sit only 3% below our fair value at an 8.7 times forward multiple, with 39% profit margins, 22% return on equity and 4% revenue growth. Three analysts still call it a buy with a 61 dollar median target, but the opportunity rating is none once the ethical line is drawn.
Sector exposure brings the usual cyclical swings in interest rates and deposit flows, and the unknown moat leaves little room for error if competition intensifies. The low multiple reflects those realities rather than a bargain.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Bermuda and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NTB trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Bermuda). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-10-18Markdown$57.95-1.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$58.66-4.7%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$62.11+5.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-18Accumulation$58.81+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-03Accumulation$58.81+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$58.81Entry 1
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
