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The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Murphy Oil Corporation
MUR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.5B · 813 employees
Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally.
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 19:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Murphy Oil Corporation holds its Accumulation at $38.50. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 89 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 89 days
Price at the screen
$38.50
Valuation
19.06 trailing · 11.72 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
22.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 22.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.36%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 12.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +4% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Explorer Masks Weak Returns Behind Low Multiple
Oil prices move like waves on an open sea, and Murphy Oil sits squarely in their path. Revenue growth of 9% sounds steady yet profit margins sit at just 3% and ROE at 2%, so the business turns little profit even as the cycle runs. Forward earnings trade at 11.6 times, but in this industry that low multiple often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain.
Shares sit 6% above our fair value with an opportunity rating of none and a consensus hold from fourteen analysts. We pass because the returns look too thin to justify ownership once commodity prices turn.
Energy cycles can erase margins overnight, though the ethical screen raises no flags. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MUR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Accumulation$34.62-12.9%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 12.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $44.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $44.
2026-07-18Distribution$38.84+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $44.
2026-07-03Distribution$38.84+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$38.84Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
