Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price11.99 USD
Fair value17.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation11.99+0.0% to today ✓
2026-08-05Read Distribution11.32+5.9% to today
2026-07-02Read Accumulation14.08-14.8% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
MARA Holdings, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $11.99. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-29
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$11.99
Valuation
N/A trailing · -57.10 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
5.34
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
MARA Holdings, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-29 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 41.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +42% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-29 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bitcoin miner hits our ethical red line
Picture a company turning spare electricity into digital coins across three continents. MARA runs that model yet lands in the financial services bucket, which our screen rejects outright. The business shows revenue falling 18 percent, margins at minus 235 percent and return on equity of minus 67 percent, so the numbers give little comfort either.
We pass for the same reason we skip other names that breach the ethical line. Sector classification alone is enough. No amount of analyst buy ratings or a 40 percent gap to stated fair value changes that verdict.
The operation sits inside a brutally cyclical industry where power costs and coin prices swing wildly. Negative forward earnings leave valuation multiples meaningless and highlight how quickly cash can disappear. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MARA trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score eased; its composite score rose.
2026-09-04Distribution$11.18-1.2%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-18Accumulation$14.08+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-03Accumulation$14.08+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$14.08Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
