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The Screen · Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Griffon Corporation
GFF · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.3B · 5,100 employees
Griffon Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides home and building, and consumer and professional products in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
93.22 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-18 · not a live quote Last reviewed 4 days ago
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 93.22 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 88.50, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price93.22 USD
Fair value88.50
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-31Read Markup91.47+1.9% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution93.72-0.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Griffon Corporation holds its Markdown at $93.22. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 183 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 183 days
Price at the screen
$93.22
Valuation
19.46 trailing · 15.15 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
77.15%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 77.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
18.89%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 18.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.09%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 5.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +34% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cyclical Builder Faces No Margin of Safety
Walk into any hardware aisle and you see the same pattern. Demand for doors, windows and tools rises and falls with housing cycles that no one controls. Griffon sits right in that swing, yet the shares trade eleven percent above our fair value with revenue already slipping one percent and margins at zero. The high return on equity looks impressive until you remember it can vanish the moment volumes turn.
Forward earnings sit at fifteen point nine times, a multiple that flatters only while the cycle peaks. Analysts still push a strong buy and a much higher target, but the numbers show no growth runway and an unknown moat. The ethical screen clears, yet that alone does not turn a cyclical business into a sound holding when price already embeds optimism.
The real danger is the classic trap. Low growth plus a mid-teens multiple often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain. Investors chasing the analyst chorus could watch both earnings and the rating compress together once housing slows. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GFF trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Markup$100.82+10.2%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $118. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-31Markup · changed$91.47-2.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $118.
2026-07-18Distribution$93.72+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $118.
2026-07-03Distribution$93.72+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$93.72Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
