Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price39.60 USD
Fair value42.09
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution43.22-8.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. holds its Markdown at $39.60. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 19 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 19 days
Price at the screen
$39.60
Valuation
31.94 trailing · 11.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.37
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.77%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.92%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.15%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +39% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Housing Products Firm Trades Above Fair Value
Picture a contractor ordering taps and locks for a new suburb just as mortgage rates climb and buyers vanish. Fortune Brands sits right in that slowdown, with revenue already shrinking 2% and margins stuck at 6%. Its shares sit at $51.45 while our fair value sits at $40.44, so the stock offers no margin of safety and the opportunity rating stays at none.
Forward earnings trade at 14.1 times, which looks modest until you remember building-products demand rises and falls with the housing cycle. Return on equity of just 12% shows limited pricing power, and the unknown moat leaves little protection when volumes drop. Analysts see a hold with a $50 median target, confirming the market already prices in muted prospects.
The real danger is the classic cyclical trap: a low multiple often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain. A further housing correction would hit both sales and cash flow hard, even though the business clears the ethical screen. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FBIN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Distribution$45.67-11.2%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-28Distribution$51.45+19.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 19.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-18Distribution$43.22+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-03Distribution$43.22+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$43.22Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
