Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, grading, packaging, marketing, and distribution of shell eggs, egg products, and prepared foods.
Not yet scored
74.39 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 20 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 74.39 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 57.63, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price74.39 USD
Fair value57.63
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-24Read Distribution85.08-12.6% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown78.10-4.8% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. holds its Markdown at $74.39. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$74.39
Valuation
11.22 trailing · 20.75 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.21
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
26.29%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 26.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.83%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.59%
Below 5%
Only 1.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Investigate
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on AFSC Investigate. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 22.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Egg demand looks steady but valuation does not
Picture a carton of eggs on every breakfast table. The producer behind it has posted a 20 percent profit margin and 27 percent return on equity, yet revenue has dropped 53 percent and the shares trade at 36.5 times forward earnings while our fair value sits 42 percent lower. That gap leaves no opportunity on the table.
The market is pricing in more durability than the recent numbers support. With an unknown moat and a business tied to volatile commodity egg prices, the current multiple looks generous even after the ethical screen clears. Analyst targets around 81 dollars still sit well above the level that matches the cash flows on offer.
Cyclical swings in feed costs and retail pricing can turn strong margins into thin ones quickly. A low growth outlook combined with a stretched valuation raises the classic risk that peak earnings are being capitalised at peak multiples. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CALM trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-24Markdown$88.55+13.4%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 13.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-18Markdown$78.10+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-03Markdown$78.10+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$78.10Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.