NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,406+0.14%BTC$77,436VIX15.44−12.82%live tape · as of 11:00 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
Boyd Gaming Corporation
BYD · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.6B · 16,009 employees
Boyd Gaming Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-jurisdictional gaming company in the United States and Canada.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
76.45 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Boyd Gaming Corporation holds its Markdown at $76.45. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 189 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 189 days
Price at the screen
$76.45
Valuation
3.39 trailing · 9.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.07
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: casino
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: casino
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Casinos clear the numbers but not the screen
Walk into any Las Vegas property on a busy weekend and the cash registers still ring, yet Boyd Gaming lands on the wrong side of our ethical screen because the whole sector is off limits. We pass outright.
The numbers look tidy on the surface, with a forward multiple of 11.2 times, a 45 percent profit margin and 94 percent return on equity, but revenue is crawling at just 1 percent and the shares already sit 7 percent above our fair value of 81.24 dollars. That low multiple on a consumer cyclical is usually a warning rather than a bargain.
High returns can vanish fast when discretionary spending turns, and the ethical red flag removes any temptation to dig deeper. Consensus targets sit higher but we apply our own lens here. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BYD trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-24Distribution$84.12-4.1%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94.
2026-07-24Distribution$87.72+0.3%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94.
2026-07-18Distribution$87.46+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94.
2026-07-03Distribution$87.46+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$87.46Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.