Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.22, read 2026-10-23
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price50.70 USD
Fair value66.07
Ethical score64.7/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-27Read Markup49.09+3.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-02Read Markdown47.06+7.7% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with deal news in the headlines
2026-08-23Read Markup47.99+5.6% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 33% rise in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution35.97+41.0% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
BILL Holdings, Inc. holds its Markup at $50.70. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 62 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 62 days
Price at the screen
$50.70
Valuation
N/A trailing · 11.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 64.7
Beta
1.14
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
17.62%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 17.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
11.73%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 11.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.64%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
6.22%
Below 5%
6.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
BILL Holdings, clears the business-activity screen, and its debt is inside the line. Where it falls short is income purity: around 6% of its income right now is non-operating interest income, against a roughly 5% ceiling, so it does not pass. That reflects what it earns today, not the business itself, and it could clear the screen if its operating revenue grows and the interest share falls.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today BILL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 34.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Small business payments tool shows zero profits
Every time a small firm pays a supplier or chases an invoice the software sits in the middle, yet BILL Holdings still posts a zero profit margin and zero return on equity. Revenue growth has slowed to 14 percent while the forward multiple sits at 13.3 times, numbers that fail to clear even a modest hurdle for a business whose moat remains unknown.
We pass because the margin of safety on paper does not offset the lack of actual earnings power or competitive edge, despite an ethical screen that clears. Analyst targets hover near 52 dollars but offer no buffer once the current lack of returns is priced in.
Risk sits in execution and competition from larger platforms that already serve the same customers, with currency and adoption swings adding further uncertainty in a market that rewards scale over features. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BILL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-27Markup · changed$49.09+4.6%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $55.
2026-10-20Markdown$46.92+4.7%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $55.
2026-10-13Markdown$44.83-4.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $55.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$47.06-1.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $55.
2026-08-23Markup · changed$47.99+7.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $55.
2026-07-23Distribution$44.71+24.3%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 24.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $55.
2026-07-18Distribution$35.97+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $55.
2026-07-03Distribution$35.97+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (65). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$35.97Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (65). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.