Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.60, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price25.74 USD
Fair value51.48
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-27Read Distribution27.25-5.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 25% slide in 7 weeks
2026-09-11Read Markdown36.51-29.5% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Avalyn Pharma Inc. holds its Distribution at $25.74. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$25.74
Valuation
N/A trailing · -10.56 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
1.12%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 1.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
57.79%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 57.8% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
35.50%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 35.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Avalyn Pharma's business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 58% of its assets, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +133% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Early stage lung drug firm lacks basic data
Avalyn is trying to turn common pills for lung scarring into inhaled versions that reach the disease faster and with fewer side effects. The idea sounds neat on paper, yet the company is still years from revenue and shows zero profit margin alongside a negative forward earnings multiple. Opportunity rating sits at none and the ethical screen returns insufficient data because standard financial ratios are unavailable.
That gap matters. Without those numbers we cannot judge cash burn, balance sheet strength or governance track record, so the position fails our basic filters even before clinical risk enters the picture. Four analysts carry a median target near fair value, but the absence of usable ratios leaves the story untestable.
Development of inhaled medicines for rare lung conditions carries high failure rates at every trial stage. Currency or reimbursement issues matter less here than the simple fact that most candidates never reach patients. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AVLN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 10.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $59.
2026-10-20Markdown$24.64-4.3%Entry 4
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $59.
2026-10-13Markdown$25.76-18.5%Entry 3
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 18.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $59.
2026-10-02Markdown$31.62-13.4%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $59.
2026-09-11Markdown$36.51Entry 1
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $59.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.