Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 19:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
ArcBest Corporation holds its Markdown at $134.80. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$134.80
Valuation
192.57 trailing · 14.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.55
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.94%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.91%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.29%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.12%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 34.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Thin Margins Leave This Trucker Hard to Love
Picture a lorry rumbling across the Midwest with a load of widgets. The driver gets paid, the fuel gets burned, yet the operator keeps only a penny on every pound of revenue. ArcBest sits in that exact spot. Revenue inches ahead at 3 percent while profit margins sit at 1 percent and return on equity barely clears 4 percent. A forward multiple of 17 times does not look expensive on paper, yet nothing here signals the business can widen those returns.
We give the ethical screen a clean pass and note the modest 12 percent gap to our fair value. Still the opportunity rating stays at none. Analysts like the name and their 173 dollar median target sits above the current price, but low growth and thin capital returns leave little room for error in a competitive haulage market.
The real risk is that this remains a classic cyclical value trap. Peak-cycle earnings can look cheap on a modest multiple while the underlying economics stay ordinary. Currency moves, fuel spikes and any slowdown in freight volumes would hit hard. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ARCB trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 52% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 137%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135.
2026-07-21Markup$159.81-7.6%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 52% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 137%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135.
2026-07-18Markup$173.04+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 52% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 137%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135.
2026-07-17Markup$173.04+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 52% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 137%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135.
2026-07-03Markup$173.04+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$173.04Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
